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Volume 16 Issue 1
2025
Indexing Partners
India-USA Bilateral Relations Amid Disruptions in Multilateral World Order during Trump 2.0
| Author(s) | SURESH KUMAR KUMAWAT |
|---|---|
| Country | India |
| Abstract | The second term of Donald Trump, referred to here as "Trump 2.0," signaled a continuation of his administration's deviation from traditional multilateral diplomacy towards a more unilateral, transactional foreign policy. This transformation significantly influenced global geopolitics and disrupted established international institutions. Within this turbulent environment, India-USA bilateral relations evolved rapidly, marked by strategic cooperation, defense deals, economic frictions, and shifting diplomatic postures. This research analyzes the nature of Indo-US relations in the context of global multilateral disorder triggered during Trump 2.0, examining how both nations recalibrated their strategies to maintain mutual interests. The paper also explores the implications for long-term strategic alignment and regional power dynamics, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. Keywords: India-USA relations, Trump 2.0, multilateralism, strategic partnership, Indo-Pacific, bilateral diplomacy, geopolitical disruptions, foreign policy 1. Introduction: The India-USA relationship, historically shaped by Cold War dynamics and post-Cold War realignments, underwent a notable transformation during the Trump presidency. While Trump 1.0 (2016–2020) laid the foundation for a transactional and personality-driven approach to foreign policy, Trump 2.0—whether considered a hypothetical continuation or an intensified form of his earlier term—represented further disruption to the traditional global order. The Trump administration challenged the foundational pillars of multilateralism by adopting an “America First” posture that emphasized national interests over collective international responsibilities. Institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the United Nations (UN), NATO, and even the World Health Organization (WHO) faced neglect, criticism, or withdrawal of support. These actions signaled a retreat from the United States’ historical role as a stabilizing force in global diplomacy, leading to a fragmented international order. In this environment of increasing global uncertainty and weakening multilateralism, India emerged as a particularly significant strategic partner for the United States. As tensions with China escalated—both in terms of trade wars and military posturing—the Indo-Pacific region came to dominate US strategic thinking. India’s geographic, economic, and military profile made it an indispensable element in Washington’s counterbalance to Chinese influence. Both countries identified common ground in defending democratic norms, securing maritime routes, and promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific. However, the partnership was not without its frictions. Trump’s protectionist economic stance led to the withdrawal of India’s preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), while tariff disputes created tensions in bilateral trade negotiations. Furthermore, his administration's strict immigration reforms, particularly concerning H-1B visas, adversely affected Indian professionals and the technology sector. On environmental issues, the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement created a vacuum in global climate leadership, leaving developing nations like India to recalibrate their environmental commitments and partnerships. Nevertheless, despite such challenges, the Indo-US relationship showed remarkable resilience and depth. Strategic dialogues continued at various levels, defense cooperation intensified, and both nations advanced shared objectives in cybersecurity, space collaboration, counterterrorism, and technology exchange. Key agreements such as the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and the strengthening of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) showcased a growing convergence of strategic interests. At a time when many global alliances were unraveling or weakening under the weight of nationalism and unilateralism, the India-USA bilateral relationship stood out as a pragmatic and adaptable partnership. India’s traditionally non-aligned foreign policy began to exhibit a subtle shift, balancing its ties with multiple global powers while deepening its engagement with the United States. This reflects a broader transformation in Indian foreign policy thinking—one that is increasingly guided by realpolitik and strategic autonomy rather than ideological non-alignment. This paper seeks to analyze how the bilateral relationship between India and the USA evolved during the Trump 2.0 period, particularly against the backdrop of a disrupted multilateral world order. It explores the balance between cooperation and conflict in trade, defense, diplomacy, and global governance. Furthermore, it examines how this evolving relationship redefines the contours of international diplomacy in an era where traditional multilateral structures are under strain. By assessing India’s diplomatic strategy and America’s shifting global role, the study aims to offer insights into the future trajectory of India-USA relations and their implications for regional and global stability. 2. Review of Literature: The scholarly examination of India-USA relations has evolved significantly over the decades, particularly in response to global power shifts, economic realignments, and security concerns. During the Cold War, much of the literature highlighted ideological divergence, with India’s non-alignment clashing with America’s bloc-based approach. Post-Cold War studies, however, began emphasizing the gradual warming of bilateral ties due to shared democratic values, market-oriented reforms in India, and common security interests. C. Raja Mohan (2003) discusses the shift from estrangement to engagement, noting that India’s liberalization in the 1990s opened new avenues for strategic and economic cooperation with the United States. He argues that shared geopolitical concerns and the need for a multipolar world contributed to the rise of a "natural alliance." Alyssa Ayres (2018) analyzes the economic and strategic evolution of the relationship in her book “Our Time Has Come: How India is Making Its Place in the World.” She notes that India’s growing economic influence and strategic clout made it an indispensable partner for the U.S., especially in a world marked by the rise of China. Tanvi Madan (2020), in her work “Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped US-India Relations during the Cold War,” provides a nuanced understanding of how the China factor has historically influenced India-US relations. Her insights become particularly relevant in the Trump 2.0 context, where countering China's assertiveness became a central theme in U.S. foreign policy. Ashley J. Tellis and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2016–2020) produced multiple policy briefs emphasizing the strategic partnership between India and the U.S., especially in defense cooperation and Indo-Pacific engagement. These studies stress the importance of institutional frameworks like the Quad and foundational defense agreements (LEMOA, COMCASA, BECA) in enhancing bilateral trust and interoperability. Sreeram Chaulia (2020) highlights Trump’s foreign policy as inherently unpredictable and transactional. His analysis in “Trumped: Emerging Powers in a Post-American World” offers insights into how emerging powers like India adapted to a U.S. foreign policy that prioritized bilateralism over multilateralism and viewed global alliances through a cost-benefit lens. In terms of trade and economics, Arvind Panagariya and other economists have assessed the impact of Trump's protectionist trade policies on India-U.S. commercial relations. The withdrawal of India's GSP status, tightening of H-1B visa regulations, and ongoing tariff disputes are common themes in economic analyses from think tanks like Brookings Institution and Observer Research Foundation (ORF). Scholars like Sumit Ganguly and Rahul Sagar have contributed to the understanding of India’s foreign policy responses, noting that India’s strategic autonomy allowed it to deepen ties with the U.S. without compromising relations with other global powers such as Russia and Iran. Finally, literature on multilateralism, such as by Joseph Nye and John Ikenberry, provides a broader context for understanding the implications of Trump’s withdrawal from global institutions. Their works help frame the disruption in the international order and assess the emerging bilateral realignments, including that of India and the U.S. Despite the increasing volume of scholarly work on India-U.S. relations, there remains a gap in literature addressing the hypothetical or projected impacts of a second Trump term (Trump 2.0) on this bilateral equation. This study aims to contribute to this emerging field by providing an analytical lens on how India-USA relations could continue to evolve in an era marked by global disorder and bilateral pragmatism. 3. Hypothesis of the Study: 1. H1: There is a significant strengthening of strategic and defense cooperation between India and the USA during the Trump 2.0 era due to shared concerns over China's regional influence in the Indo-Pacific. 2. H2: The weakening of multilateral institutions under Trump’s foreign policy has led to an increased reliance on bilateral mechanisms, thereby elevating the importance of India-USA relations. 3. H3: Trump 2.0's protectionist economic and immigration policies have had a negative impact on India-USA trade and technological cooperation, particularly in sectors like IT and pharmaceuticals. 4. H4: Despite disruptions in the global multilateral order, India has managed to maintain a pragmatic and adaptive foreign policy that leverages its bilateral ties with the USA to enhance its global strategic positioning. 4. Significance of the Study: This study is significant for several reasons: 1. It provides an analytical framework to understand India’s foreign policy adaptations in response to shifting global paradigms. 2. It contributes to contemporary geopolitical scholarship by examining bilateral relations in a period of intense multilateral disruption. 3. It informs policymakers, diplomats, and scholars about the strategic calculus and policy challenges faced by both India and the USA during an unorthodox American presidency. 4. It explores how bilateral relationships can thrive or falter when global institutions falter, offering insights into future diplomatic strategies. 5. Objectives of the Study: 1. To analyze the evolution of India-USA bilateral relations during Trump 2.0. 2. To study the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on multilateral organizations and global diplomatic frameworks. 3. To assess how India responded to and adapted its foreign policy in a changing international environment. 4. To evaluate the strategic, economic, and political dimensions of the India-USA partnership during this period. 5. To identify long-term implications of Trump 2.0 on India’s global role and foreign policy orientation. 6. Research Methodology: The research employs a qualitative and analytical methodology, using: • Secondary Data Sources: Books, scholarly articles, government publications, foreign policy papers, think-tank reports, and verified news sources. • Comparative Analysis: Examination of bilateral relations pre- and post-Trump 2.0 to identify shifts and trends. • Content Analysis: Statements from Indian and American leaders, official documents from the Ministry of External Affairs (India) and U.S. State Department, and multilateral body resolutions are analyzed. • Geopolitical Mapping: Strategic developments in the Indo-Pacific and other key regions are assessed to contextualize the bilateral dynamics. 7. Data Interpretation and Analysis: a) Strategic Relations: India and the USA deepened their defense cooperation, culminating in major agreements like BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement), COMCASA, and LEMOA, which enhanced military interoperability. Quad cooperation also gained momentum, with a focus on maritime security and countering China’s assertiveness. b) Economic Relations: Despite robust trade figures, economic friction was evident. The US terminated India’s GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) status, citing lack of reciprocal trade practices. Tariffs and counter-tariffs strained the economic dialogue, but negotiations continued. c) Immigration and Technology: Trump’s immigration policies, especially regarding H-1B visas, negatively impacted India’s IT sector. However, strategic tech partnerships, including in 5G and AI, remained areas of cooperation. d) Multilateral Disruptions: Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, WHO, and TPP weakened the multilateral architecture. India, while cautious, increased its participation in alternate groupings such as the Quad and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) to maintain balance. e) Diplomacy and Leadership Style: Trump’s personality-driven diplomacy created a mixed landscape. On one hand, leaders like PM Modi leveraged personal rapport (e.g., "Howdy Modi" and "Namaste Trump" events); on the other, the unpredictability of Trump’s policies limited long-term diplomatic assurance. 8. Conclusion and Suggestions: The India-USA bilateral relationship during the hypothetical Trump 2.0 period reflected a unique blend of strategic alignment and diplomatic complexity amid a weakened multilateral framework. While multilateral institutions like the WTO, UN, and global climate frameworks experienced declining U.S. support, India adeptly navigated these disruptions to secure and even deepen its bilateral ties with Washington. The relationship demonstrated a degree of resilience largely driven by shared geopolitical concerns, especially with regard to containing China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Despite the disruptions caused by Trump's “America First” approach, India remained a key partner in the U.S.'s recalibrated Asia policy. Bilateral defense cooperation, security dialogues (like the 2+2 Ministerial), and collaborations through the Quad (India, U.S., Japan, and Australia) served as anchors of stability. Yet, the economic dimension of the partnership faced stress due to increased tariffs, tightening immigration norms, and diminished enthusiasm for multilateral trade agreements from the U.S. side. In such a climate, India had to strike a balance between deepening ties with the U.S. and protecting its own policy sovereignty and multilateral commitments. The Trump era also revealed the vulnerabilities of bilateral ties built heavily on leadership chemistry rather than institutional depth. Trump's unpredictability in foreign policy, withdrawal from global forums, and transactional diplomacy underscored the need for more consistent, institutionalized engagement mechanisms. Furthermore, the ideological differences on issues such as immigration, trade protectionism, and climate change revealed the limits of cooperation when core national interests diverged. In sum, India-USA relations during this period were shaped by both opportunity and caution. India capitalized on strategic convergence but remained wary of over-dependence. The experience offers critical lessons for the future of bilateral diplomacy in an uncertain and shifting global order. Suggestions: 1. Institutionalize Bilateral Ties: The unpredictability of the Trump administration highlighted the need for robust, institutional frameworks that can outlast leadership transitions. Establishing permanent mechanisms—such as defense treaties, economic dialogue forums, and joint working groups—can ensure policy continuity and reduce dependency on personal diplomacy. Initiatives like the India-US Strategic and Commercial Dialogue and the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) should be revitalized and given stronger mandates. 2. Diversify Engagement: While deepening U.S. ties is beneficial, India must continue to diversify its strategic relationships to safeguard its foreign policy autonomy. This includes reinforcing regional alliances (like ASEAN), maintaining constructive engagement with China and Russia where possible, and enhancing South-South cooperation. Diversification will help India avoid over-reliance on any single global actor and strengthen its global posture. 3. Revive and Strengthen Economic Dialogue: The bilateral economic relationship suffered under Trump-era protectionism. Platforms such as the U.S.-India Trade Policy Forum (TPF) and the CEO Forum should be reinvigorated to address trade imbalances, intellectual property concerns, and market access barriers. Long-term economic cooperation in emerging sectors like green energy, digital technology, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals should be prioritized. 4. Support Reforms in Multilateral Institutions: Rather than abandoning multilateralism, India should take the lead in advocating for reforms that make international institutions more reflective of contemporary global realities. This includes pushing for UN Security Council reform, fairer WTO structures, and updated rules for data governance and digital trade. Active multilateral engagement will reinforce India’s role as a global leader and support a rules-based international order. 5. Enhance Public Diplomacy and Cultural Ties: People-to-people connections, educational exchanges, and diaspora diplomacy are key assets in India-USA relations. Strengthening these through programs like the Fulbright-Nehru Fellowship, academic partnerships, and cultural initiatives will ensure broader support for the bilateral partnership beyond the political elite. 6. Prepare for Leadership Transitions: India must develop agile diplomatic strategies that can adapt to shifts in American political leadership. Whether facing a populist, nationalist administration like Trump’s or a more multilateralist one, India's foreign policy must be flexible, interest-driven, and grounded in long-term national goals. 9. References: 1. Bajpai, Kanti. India’s Grand Strategy: Ambition and Constraint. HarperCollins India, 2021. 2. Chaulia, Sreeram Sundar. “Trump’s Foreign Policy and Its Impact on South Asia.” International Journal of South Asian Studies, vol. 14, no. 1, 2020, pp. 22–38. 3. Mohan, C. Raja. Modi’s World: Expanding India’s Sphere of Influence. HarperCollins India, 2015. 4. Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. “India-U.S. Bilateral Relations.” https://mea.gov.in (Accessed April 2025). 5. Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). “2020 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers.” https://ustr.gov 6. Trump, Donald J. America First: A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again. U.S. Office of Management and Budget, 2017. 7. The White House. “National Security Strategy of the United States of America.” December 2017. https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov 8. Scott, David. “The Indo-Pacific in U.S. Strategy: Responding to Power Shifts.” Routledge Handbook of US Foreign Policy in the Indo-Pacific, 2022. 9. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “U.S.-India Strategic Dialogue: Past Progress and Future Promise.” CSIS Reports, 2021. 10. Muni, S.D. “India’s Foreign Policy and Regional Multilateralism.” South Asian Survey, vol. 27, no. 2, 2020, pp. 157–173. 11. Walt, Stephen M. “The Collapse of the Liberal World Order.” Foreign Policy, June 26, 2016. 12. The Diplomat. “India-US Relations Under Trump: Strategic Continuity or Tactical Shift?” https://thediplomat.com (Accessed March 2025). 13. Brookings Institution. “The Future of U.S.-India Relations in a Multipolar World.” Policy Brief, 2022. 14. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). “India-U.S. Relations: Issues and Challenges.” https://www.cfr.org 15. Nye, Joseph S. Is the American Century Over? Polity Press, 2015. |
| Keywords | . |
| Field | Arts |
| Published In | Volume 16, Issue 1, January-June 2025 |
| Published On | 2025-04-05 |
| Cite This | India-USA Bilateral Relations Amid Disruptions in Multilateral World Order during Trump 2.0 - SURESH KUMAR KUMAWAT - IJAIDR Volume 16, Issue 1, January-June 2025. |
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